Tube delays rise as TfL’s renewals backlog is put at up to £6.5bn

More Tube journeys are being delayed or cancelled as the Underground’s ageing equipment wears out, and the bill for catching up on overdue renewals could be as large as £6.5bn.

Part of the problem goes back to 2017, when TfL decided to cut spending on renewals. Some equipment was in good enough shape at the time for work to wait, and TfL was counting on extra income from the Elizabeth line, which was about to open. The line opened late, and the pandemic then wrecked TfL’s income and disrupted routine maintenance. Parts of the network have been getting worse since.

Why Tube delays are increasing

Some assets that once sat near the top of TfL’s condition scale have now dropped below what it regards as acceptable. That does not make the network unsafe, but TfL has to impose limits on speed or weight, and occasionally take equipment out of use.

A reported track defect brings an automatic 10mph limit until engineers have checked the site. TfL’s internal reports show 30 to 40 incidents a week in which restrictions like these hold passengers up by two minutes or more. Measured against modern standards for railways, 42 per cent of Underground track is classed as “very poor”.

Before the pandemic, there were fewer than 200 of these incidents on the Underground each year. The average is now about 350, roughly one a day. Lost passenger hours from disruption never went above 250,000 in any pre-pandemic year. This year the figure has already reached 830,000.

How much TfL spends on renewals

Patrick Doig, TfL’s chief financial officer, gave evidence last week to the London Assembly’s Budget and Performance committee. He said about £400m went on renewals in 2020, when the annual requirement was at least £1.1bn. Spending has crept up since and should reach about £800m this year.

The committee looked at how the backlog affects passengers. A slightly longer wait between trains may go unnoticed, but a broken lift or a failed signal is felt straight away, particularly by people who depend on step-free access. Members also asked whether TfL is getting close to the point where keeping worn-out equipment going costs more in the long run than replacing it.

Claire Mann, TfL’s chief operating officer, said safety comes first when deciding which faults to fix, though the effect on passengers is also weighed.